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Denmark entered the pandemic on a strong economic footing and utilized its large policy space built over time to successfully address the crisis and lay the ground for a strong recovery. The outlook is for a rebound in activity, but uncertainty remains elevated with risks tilted to the downside. Macrofinancial vulnerabilities persist as housing price growth has accelerated and household debt remains high. The current account declined but remains in surplus.

Denmark

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Sector-specific macroprudential regulations increase the riskiness of credit to other sectors. Using firm-level data, this paper computed the measures of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation for 29 advanced and emerging economies. Consistently across these measures, the paper finds that during credit expansions, an unexpected tightening of household-specific macroprudential tools is followed by a rise in riskier corporate lending. Quantitatively, such unexpected tightening during a period of rapid credit growth increases the riskiness of corporate credit by around 10 percent of the historical standard deviation. This result supports early policy interventions when credit vulnerabilities are still low, since sectoral leakages will be less important at this stage. Further evidence from bank lending standards surveys suggests that the leakage effects are stronger for larger firms compared to SMEs, consistent with recent evidence on the use of personal real estate as loan collateral by small firms.

Denmark

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This Selected Issues paper analyzes wage and inflation dynamics in Denmark. High profit margins contributed to growth in the gross domestic product deflator. Historical evidence suggests that the contribution from wages to price deflators will likely pick up. Nominal wage growth in Denmark has so far been modest and outpaced by high inflation, putting real wage growth in negative territory. Amid still-tight labor markets, this has raised concerns about wage pressures going forward and the eventual impact on inflation. The analysis suggests that wage formation in Denmark has historically been partly backward looking, and economic slack has played a role. Given these, high inflation realized thus far and the tightness in the labor market implies that wage pressures are expected to remain elevated in the near term. Some of these wage pressures, in turn, are expected to be passed on to core inflation, sustaining high inflation. Thus, determined policies to fight inflation are important.

Denmark

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In this paper, we develop a model incorporating the impact of financial inclusion to study the implications of introducing a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). CBDCs in developing countries (unlike in advanced countries) have the potential to bank large unbanked populations and boost financial inclusion which can increase overall lending and reduce bank disintermediation risks. Our model captures two key channels. First, CBDC issuance can increase bank deposits from the previously unbanked by incentivizing the opening of bank accounts for access to CBDC wallets (offsetting potential flows from deposits to CBDCs among those already banked). Second, data from CBDC usage allows for the building of credit to reduce credit-risk information asymmetry in lending. We find that CBDC can increase overall lending if (1) bank deposit liquidity risk is low, (2) the size and relative wealth of the previously unbanked population is large, and (3) CBDC is valuable to households as a means of payment or for credit-building. CBDC can still be optimal for household welfare even when overall lending decreases as households benefit from the value of using CBDC for payments, CBDC provides an alternative "safe" savings vehicle, and CBDC generates greater surplus in lending by reducing credit-risk information asymmetry. Most countries are considering a "two-tier" CBDC model, where central banks issue CBDC to commercial banks which in turn distribute them to consumers. If non-bank payment system providers can distribute CBDC, fewer funds will flow into deposit accounts from the unbanked because a bank account is no longer needed to access CBDC. If CBDC data is shareable with banks, those without bank accounts can still build credit and access lower interest rate loans. This design is optimal for welfare if the gains from greater access to CBDC outweigh the contraction in lending.

Denmark

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We analyze a range of macrofinancial indicators to extract signals about cyclical systemic risk across 107 economies over 1995–2020. We construct composite indices of underlying liquidity, solvency and mispricing risks and analyze their patterns over the financial cycle. We find that liquidity and solvency risk indicators tend to be counter-cyclical, whereas mispricing risk ones are procyclical, and they all lead the credit cycle. Our results lend support to high-level accounts that risks were underestimated by stress indicators in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis. The policy implications of conflicting risk signals would depend on the phase of the credit cycle.

Denmark